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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.