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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|